Meteorologist Mike Smith

 

 

Mike Smith's passion for meteorology led him to establish WeatherData Services Inc. Photo Illustration

W hen Mike Smith was five years old, an F5 tornado tore through his town in Missouri, USA, killing 44 people and destroying his kindergarten.

“I remember it like it was yesterday,” he says. Smith, a member of the Rotary Club of East Wichita, Kan., went on to become a meteorologist and extreme weather expert. His passion for applied meteorology led him to establish WeatherData Services Inc., which offers weather risk-management consulting and monitoring solutions. It also drives the narrative in his 2010 book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. In the tale about the U.S. storm warning system, Smith combines his firsthand experience with accounts of wild storms and the people who forecast them.

The Rotarian: How accurate has storm prediction become?

Smith: It used to be that people joked, with some justification, about shoveling 6 inches of partly cloudy off the driveway. That almost never happens anymore. Think about the blizzard Chicago experienced [in February]. The storm started late Tuesday afternoon, but a blizzard watch had already been issued on Sunday. The ability to forecast with that level of precision is something we couldn’t have done even 10 years ago.

TR: What has changed?

Smith: The equipping of jumbo jet airliners with weather sensors, and the real-time reporting of that data to the meteorological centers around the world. It used to be that the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans were giant voids in terms of collecting data. Now we have good coverage from aircraft. Improved weather satellite sensing and better computer models also have come together in about the last 10 years.

TR: What’s the next frontier?

Smith: We’re getting to the point where storm warnings are quite accurate, but the bigger challenge is getting them to the people who need them. My company is looking at the ability to use your cell phone’s GPS to get you a specific warning wherever you happen to be.

TR: Hurricane Katrina: What went wrong?

Smith: Meteorologists, for all intents and purposes, got Katrina right. The bureaucrats and politicians fell down on the job. Even though everyone knew New Orleans would flood if the levees were breached, and even though we at WeatherData forecast the levee breach, politicians just couldn’t imagine that happening.

TR: In your book, you also discuss the tornado that hit Greensburg, Kan., in 2007. What went right in that case?

Smith: First of all, the weather forecasts and the warnings were superb. Second, TV stations in the area had spotters with the appropriate technology to get reports back to the stations. People listened. They knew what to do. They went to the basement. We believe we saved over 230 lives. That is a triumph in a tornado of that intensity. Sixty years ago, triple-digit-fatality tornadoes were surprisingly frequent. Before there was a tornado warning system, single tornadoes killed 600 or more at a time. That doesn’t happen anymore.

Mike Smith debunks some common myths about tornadoes

• Myth: Tornadoes aim for mobile home parks.
  • Fact: Tornadoes are not drawn to mobile home parks. But the damage appears spectacular and there are often injuries, and the media are drawn to reports of injuries and images of destruction.
• Myth: Tornadoes don’t hit downtown areas.
  • Fact: Fort Worth, Texas, was hit in 2000. Nashville was hit in 1998. The only reason fewer tornadoes hit major cities is because most downtown areas occupy only a few square miles. Statistically, they’re small targets compared with the rest of the United States.
• Myth: Tornadoes won’t go over hills or mountains.
  • Fact: They can and they do, especially the most intense tornadoes. You’re not safe in a valley. Rivers won’t protect you from tornadoes either.
• Myth: Tornadoes are unpredictable.
  • Fact: That’s less true every day. Little-bitty tornadoes, those that are very weak and are on the ground for a minute or less, are probably unpredictable. Meteorologists are pretty good at predicting the rest of them.